What are my chances of getting into the USNA?

Hi I am currently a junior and am a class of 2016 candidate for the U.S Naval Academy. It is my passion, desire, and life long dream to attend the school and serve our country. Here is what I have done so far. I have been a captain of the Varsity Sailing Team for 6 years with multiple coaches’ awards and have successfully led the team to national ranking for the first time in my school's history. I have instructed at a sailing camp and became level 1 certified sailing instructor through US sailing. In addition, I have begun to start my own sailing instructing business. I have also been the captain of the JV and JJV basketball team and am a member of the varsity basketball team as well. I currently have about a 100 weighted gpa (4.0=96) and a 550 in reading and 520 in math SAT (first time taken and must improve). I am an active member of key club and serve as the secretary along with organizing community service projects. I am a member of the National Honor Society serving as the president and a student ambassador to the National Society of High School Scholars. I have attended the National Youth Leadership Forum on Law and CSI and was asked to go to the Global Youth Leadership Forum. I have published three poems and am also a student ambassador at my school and a member of the honor council. I am volunteer firefighter and am taking a 7 credit college course to become an Emergency Medical Technician. I have taken all the required class for to be considered to the USNA and have taken 3 APs this year and plan to take 4 next year. Lastly, I have a connection to a prestigious 4 star active admiral who will hopefully write me a letter of recommendation. Hopefully by following my passions and challenging myself I will be worthy to become a USNA student and a member of the Navy. However, I am applying from Virginia district one which is one of the most competitive regions in the nation. Please let me know what my chances are considering I get my SATs to around a 1200 or above. Thank you.